Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 17.329732 20.970991 24.989746 29.727595 35.132927 41.080163 48.090093
2025-10-19 12.152069 16.907486 22.705869 30.178026 39.426343 50.370146 64.162256
2025-10-26 9.394697 14.623232 21.514274 31.002770 43.449066 58.931608 79.329938
2025-11-02 7.170930 12.403617 19.809523 30.619937 45.519444 64.835915 91.214778
2025-11-09 5.723040 10.911318 18.741056 30.765518 48.045820 71.225929 103.812332
2025-11-16 4.559949 9.573796 17.624900 30.592056 49.952432 76.727078 115.338826
2025-11-23 3.540264 8.225560 16.243704 29.783764 50.762645 80.630130 124.743767
2025-11-30 3.033437 7.672249 16.035505 30.700588 54.087883 88.132682 139.332562
2025-12-07 2.421142 6.761159 15.064850 30.247788 55.233858 92.483433 149.585549
2025-12-14 2.021826 6.186015 14.591229 30.534365 57.490186 98.496435 162.373919
2025-12-21 1.522331 5.238674 13.260202 29.171946 56.957785 100.244421 168.945830
2025-12-28 1.317848 4.944251 13.156731 29.964126 59.970758 107.475089 183.819291
2026-01-04 1.107011 4.593243 12.931692 30.600284 62.918143 114.980208 199.780071
2026-01-11 0.919683 4.246432 12.665597 31.141668 65.758902 122.485658 216.097617
2026-01-18 0.781901 3.996992 12.570586 31.992366 69.169856 131.016350 234.249207
2026-01-25 0.606227 3.540261 11.901270 31.600481 70.306032 135.872308 246.816676
2026-02-01 0.487791 3.227805 11.520543 31.749684 72.408502 142.364842 262.121352
2026-02-08 0.380600 2.895785 11.018871 31.571939 73.863526 147.799198 275.871529
2026-02-15 0.277634 2.504987 10.267319 30.743612 74.000720 150.972234 286.044457
2026-02-22 0.237070 2.395881 10.295145 31.683153 77.604969 160.203638 306.294717
2026-03-01 0.175835 2.116704 9.751121 31.219154 78.394819 164.555682 318.644932
2026-03-08 0.139638 1.955016 9.535524 31.512823 80.706774 171.641771 335.684827
2026-03-15 0.090319 1.627297 8.681327 30.116546 79.456290 172.320589 342.018356